According to the CDC, 36,000 people die annually from the flu. This obviously is not a good thing, and we should take precautions against it, but that’s pretty much it. We don’t act every year as if the approach of flu season is going to wipe out half of humanity. We don’t have the VP advising people not to go on airplanes (the travel industry must have LOVED that) and we don’t have news networks throwing up terrifying graphics describing impending disaster because of AHANA (that’s what I call Swine Flu, using a simple substitution code to replace 1 with the letter A because you can’t pronounce A(H1N1).
If we’re going to panic, then we should panic about something important, like that the Mets are looking a lot like a last place team. Priorities, people!
PAD
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Peter,
While AHANA may end up being nothing to have gotten quite so bent out of shape over (only time — probably a very short time, considering — will tell), it’s important to note that a pandemic flu is not at all the same as the yearly flu that you are talking about. By definition, a pandemic flu would be more virulent and widespread, and would almost certainly result in more deaths than the normal, seasonal flu. There is a vaccine for the flu that causes 36,000 deaths a year. There is currently no vaccine for the Swine Flu. From pandemicflu.gov, their “terms defined”:
“Seasonal (or common) flu is a respiratory illness that can be transmitted person to person. Most people have some immunity, and a vaccine is available.”
“Pandemic flu is virulent human flu that causes a global outbreak, or pandemic, of serious illness. Because there is little natural immunity, the disease can spread easily from person to person. Currently, there is no pandemic flu.”
THAT’S what people, rightly or wrongly, are worried about. Not just “the flu.”
But I think that’s PAD’s whole point. Not only is the swine flu not a pandemic yet, it’s nowhere near the league of the regular flu yet. So far people are massively overreacting to what’s happened.
Yeah, pretty much.
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PAD
Maybe people are overreacting to some extent, but I also don’t think it’s unreasonable to react badly when the WHO declares that a pandemic is “imminent.” But I mainly just wanted to point out that the number of deaths resulting from seasonal flu is irrelevant in this scenario, because by definition, if we enter a pandemic flu situation, we will be talking about a completely different type of flu.
I do think that an announcement from the WHO (that would be the What the Hëll Organization) should issue a “Mets Failure Imminent” announcement and maybe have FEMA (Fan Energizing Mets Association) hand out emergency Rally Caps.
“But I mainly just wanted to point out that the number of deaths resulting from seasonal flu is irrelevant in this scenario, because by definition, if”
Notice where I stopped quoting you. At the word “if.”
*IF* we’re invaded by Canada, then putting a million troops on the Canadian border will be justified. Since that hasn’t happened yet, then it isn’t justified. You have to look at actual facts, and the fact that the regular flu can kill people is *completely* relevant to evaluating how much of a threat this outbreak actually is.
Right now we don’t know that this is going to be a pandemic. What the WHO is doing is taking steps to keep things under control if they do get bad, but that is not the same thing as saying that they *will* get bad.
Right now a lot of the TV news is basically flashing signs saying *EVERYBODY PANIC!* That’s not helping.
You can’t just wave that away by saying “if.” Hysteria and a total lack of perspective do not help the situation at all. Yes, the swine flu has killed some people. However, the regular flu has killed plenty of people and we don’t know the health conditions of the people who died from swine flu. These are very relevant facts and PAD is completely right about people needing to get a grip.
Well, okay, but the Ambassador to Canada hasn’t raised the threat level of a Canuck Invason to 5 out of 6 and declared that such an invasion is “imminent”. If that did happen, I imagine we’d move some troops to the border. We wouldn’t sit around saying, “Well, it hasn’t happened yet! No need to prepare!”
I’m just saying, if you want to tell people to get a grip, maybe start with the health professionals at the World Health Organization, who might just, I dunno, know things? With knowledge and learnin’ and such?
This whole debacle proves that everytime we see in a fictional program the ‘classic’ meeting with city/state/government officials where they must try and contain and avoid a city/state/nationwide panic – it’s not just a tired ol’ cliche – it’s a stark, frakking reality.
One blogger I read is seeing the 1’s as I’s (he uses a sans-serif font) and is calling the bug “Heinie.” I kinda like that one…
And yeah, we need someone to pull a Hitchhiker’s and plaster the TV screens with “Don’t Panic” in big, friendly letters…
J.
I pronounce “H1N1” as “heinie”.
I seriously want to throw something at the TV every time I see a lead story about how Swine Flu is going to kill us all. Generally, I viewed this story like all the other things that were going to kill us over the past few years: Bird Flu, SARS, Y2K. Those things really wiped out humanity from the face of the Earth, eh? I’m surprised there’s enough people to go see Wolverine this weekend.
Speaking of MLB, the Jays have one of the best percentages in the entire league. How about that, eh? Personally, I think it just means that Our Lord has taken pity upon the misbegotten Blue Jays who were forsaken by their Toronto people. In fact, I’m going to go turn on the game right now and see how they’re doing…
… aw crud, they’re tied at the 5th. So much for that.
As I read about the 1918 Spanish Flu, I recall that a mild strain of it passed through people BEFORE the very deadly version ripped through the world a few months later. Not meant to panic anyone, just to make you go : Hmmmmmm…
I think the only epidemic I’m experiencing from swine flu is the epidemic of pisspoor jokes that I make to my coworkers, “See this copy of ‘Slumdog Millionaire?’ Swine flu. High five? Now you have swine flu.” I can’t help myself, especially considering that I keep getting laughs.
Thats right…the Spanish Flu (nothing to do with Spain, it got its name because during the war days the contending countries press wouldnt report about it not to undermine troop morale. Spanish newspapers, used by prisoner and their families to contact their loved ones, were the only media reporting on the flu) was initially a pandemic of mild flu. The real problem came when the virus mutated into a deadlier strain. I remember reading some figures about pandemia greatly elevating the possibility of a deadly mutation. And the present strain of the swine flu is actually deadlier than 1918’s first strain…
And while the bird flu of some years ago was mostly magnified by the media, here it is the WHO issuing the warnings. Last friday we were in level 5 of epidemic sacale, thats “inminent pandemia”. So… you dont need to panic, but caution is never ill advised…
…speaking of wich, last saturday I was in a party with at least ten “mayistas”, historians specialized in mayan culture, many of them having arrived less than a week ago from…Mexico. The things I do for love.
I haven’t seen people panicking…well, Biden but, you know, Biden.
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If the occasional scare gets people to do what we all ought to do to prepare for any one of the many things that could cause a very bad disruption in normality, it’s mostly to the good. If you can safely say that you are prepared at home to be able to survive for 2 weeks without electricity using only what you already have, you are probably ok for most scenarios TDIZ*
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(* That Don’t Include Zombies)
Oooh, not sure I want my kids catching a Heinie flu – sounds waaay too messy ….
I can do the two weeks at home, but zombies… the food’s in the basement, and the only zombie-safe area would be the attic… I did point out at work, during a discussion of Zombie Jane Austen and the new wave of Zombie Romances (yes, sorry Drac, vampires are now passe and Zombies are hot), that our building is not zombie-proof, outside of maybe the roof. After all, I’m on safety committee, and that’s something we didn’t address.
Now, if a zombie dies of swine flu, is he still contagious after death? Or would the virus have to be a zombie as well? CAN viruses, which are not like any other living creature, become zombies? Or are they already, and that’s why they behave like they do?
Questions science has yet to answer.
Maybe we need a research grant.
Just remember that they have very little upper body strength. Busting a staircase is all it takes to leave them milling impotently on the bottom floors.
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The current World War Z continuity, which is rabidly becoming zombie canon, is that neither virus’ nor bacteria can infect zombified flesh…in fact, one sign that you have a zombie victim is that their wounds will not show infection, even after a few days (I say, if anyone shows up with anything remotely resembling a bite wound, send them on their way. This is no time for rash sentimentality.)
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I rather like the idea that zombies are caused by prions, the infectious proteins that cause kuru and Creutzfeldt-Jakob and mad cow disease. 1- they are cool. Infectious proteins. very cool. 2- kuru was a cannibal disease, which is a nice bit of synchronicity. 3- my understanding of prions (admittedly probably outdated) is that they act much like…zombies. Aberrant proteins that seek out and attack normal proteins, turning them into prions, which seek out and…
I think it’d be interesting if there was a flu called the Panda Flu, and there’s worry that there will become pandamic.
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PAD
A case of pandering to the masses then, or being bamboozled by the media? (He said Po-facedly)
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Cheers.
Personally, I always found bird flu to be absolutely hysterical. Someone talks about bird flu, I always want to counter with, “Because it could.” Now if they start talking about chimney flu, Ðìçk Van Ðÿkë’s head will explode.
I’m with El Hombre. Yes, this may turn out to be a dud as pandemics go (apparently Mexico’s rate of new cases is already declining), but why take the chance?
Up here in Canada, it has been ascertained that more people died of SARS than needed to because the authorities were slow off the mark in reacting to a potential new disease spreading.
Or, for that matter, the daily newspaper reprinting items from back in ’18 showing that, again, hundreds more died in this city than would have, had the government not wished to underplay the situation rather than risk the population panicking – until it was too late to contain things.
It depends on what you mean by “why take the chance?”
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I’m perfectly OK with all the federal government action I’ve seen. On the other hand, there were 300 school closings the other day. There hadn’t even been 300 reported cases in the US yet, so not all those schools had infected students, but 300 schools closed. 120 of them in the Fort Worth area. That’s absurd, a waste of time, and is more about panic than actual prevention. Now, any school that has an infected student might want to close. But a quarter million kids did not need to get sent home.
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All those pictures we see of people wearing surgical masks in Mexico? Waste of time. They’re not air tight, so all the air those people are breathing is coming in from the sides. It’s useful for a sick person to wear them so that sneezing won’t spread the disease, but healthy people don’t do any good wearing them.
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Oh, and here’s the big thing. Anti immigrant sentiment is getting heavily stirred up by this. People are yelling to close the border, which would stop more medical supplies that we get from Mexico than it would stop sick people. Obviously the people engaging in this were no saints to begin with, but there’s a lot of ire getting riled up right now. That’s outright dangerous.
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Plus, the pork industry is taking a hit even though the disease can’t be spread that way.
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That’s the stuff that is a problem. I totally agree about the government taking the steps that are necessary, but the “Everybody Panic!” stuff that we’re also seeing doesn’t help.
Jason, you may feel that closing so many schools is a bit of overkill, but bear in mind that just ONE CONFIRMED infected student means that there is a VERY good chance that hundreds of other students could have come into contact in a very short time (either through first-hand exposure or a secondary exposure–being exposed to someone who’d been exposed to the “student zero”). A student could easily have been sent to school by a parent who didn’t believe his/her child was sick enough to warrant staying home (and let’s not pretend THAT doesn’t happen); heck, the student might have actually been feeling okay when he left home and only started showing genuine symptoms (fever, chills, vomiting) once he got to school.
And with the issue of having kids taking buses to school, you may have kids going to a number of different schools–one infected student going to one school could easily be on a bus with kids from two or three different schools (my own personal experience on the school bus had us making rounds to as many as four different schools on a single route–elementary, junior high and high schools).
And, given this wonderfully litigious society, what school wants to take the risk that IT will be held responsible for any number of students getting sick (especially when many parents may not have any health insurance for doctor visits), and possibly dying when there’s an easy solution? Hëll, a little over a year ago, a school in Enterprise, AL, was hit by a tornado and several students were killed. There were parents who were outraged that the students weren’t excused when the very first tornado warning was issued so that the students could be home (and there were threats of lawsuits against the school in the first couple of days after the tornado hit). Even though there was at least one death in a private house in the tornado’s path, many parents believed their children would’ve been better off at home. (Now consider the logistics of trying to evacuate an entire school system–with hundreds of private cars on the road–in the middle of a storm that had prompted tornado warnings and think about these parents who wanted their kids at home. Could those students who died have been saved if they were home instead? Possibly. But, at the same time, many more of those students could have been killed while the schools were being emptied and all those cars were on the roads–or, the tornado’s path could have taken it into a number of residential neighborhoods where those kids would’ve been instead of at school.)
Has there been too much panic here? Quite probably, but consider the alternative. One could equally point out the overreaction following 9/11. We had a media that, on the one hand, was telling us that we were on the verge of being attacked any day while, on the other hand, the media was also reporting about Dubya’s pleas for Americans to go about their regular routines. And who can forget the daily updates on the “terror alert scale” even though we weren’t supposed to worry about another terrorist attack while doing our shopping–in the very malls that were touted as most likely to be terrorist targets?
“bear in mind that just ONE CONFIRMED infected student”
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You missed my point. I specifically said that that was reasonable. The problem is that schools with ZERO infected students are sending their kids home.
“…300 schools closed. 120 of them in the Fort Worth area. That’s absurd, a waste of time,…”
I agree, but it is perfectly in line with the un-stated goal of the state of Texas–the goal of keeping the population as ignorant as possible. Texas is the worst or almost the the worst in several categories that measure how well the populace is doing, including lowest graduation rate, high crime rates, percentage of people in poverty, teen pregnancy rate. Oh, yeah, executions.
Yes, get a grip.
Be wary, but don’t be stupid, either. Public health is not in a great state at the moment (even AFTER the anthrax attacks of seven [!] years ago. Even doubling the effects of a seasonal flu is pretty bad news for a country where it’s common for emergency rooms (which is where uninsured and underinsured folks go for medical care) are running at 150-200% of rated capacity.
Check not only the CDC sites, but relatively independent sites like Effects Measure and Aetiology, where practicing public health professionals blog, particularly where the authors specialize in handling flu transmission and epidemiology.
Also…
Depends. If the “uninfected” schools share family members with infected schools, or if there were easy vectors of transmissions between the schools, I wouldn’t necessarily say there’s a problem there–you can easily spread the disease before showing symptoms.
My thinking on the subject, is that there is a certain class of people who get off on the panic/fear response. They are almost addicted to the rush that meaningless panic provides them, and they like (perhaps subconsciously) talking themselves up into a panic about something which is not particularly likely.
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This includes communist overthrows, the muslim threat, terrorism in general, satanists, the rapture, and now flu pandemics.
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It’s impossible to reason with these people.
You know, I said almost all the same things in the other thread, and got pilloried for it. Now, a few more days of panic-media coverage and everybody’s on my bandwagon. It’s hard being in front.
Urban Diction got on as well:
problem saturation – A process by which Mainstream Media addresses an issue incessantly, building up to a sense of pending doom. Of course, the problem, while worrisome, does not pose the grave threat they would like you to believe. Finally, MSM abandons coverage of the problem completely, moving on to another problem.
“Honey, why don’t we hear any news about the drug cartels anymore?”
“That was last month’s problem saturation, dear.”
That’s about the size of it. There was an excellent editorial cartoon in Canada’s GLOBE & MAIL daily where you had a vaudeville-style stage and a terrified audience looking at a dancing bird getting the ‘hook’ as it was being replaced by a dancing pig. Caption: “Fifteen minutes of fame.”
By the way, here’s a decent article on public health actions (comes recommended by Aetiology and Effect Measure):
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/5/2/727192/-H1N1:-Why-Do-Schools-Close,-And-When-Do-They-Open
My take away is this: If they do their job, there’ll sometimes be the appearance of over-reacting. If they don’t there’ll be the appearance of being asleep at the switch…Behind the scenes, communication has also been excellent. In a way, this is a country-wide tabletop for a worse event that still may come (maybe not for years, but eventually it will.) But don’t judge things just yet. This story is still in the early chapters.
The Government is either trying to make us hate Mexicans or they are taking our attention away from something else they are doing.
Too late, and too late.
You already hate Mexicans?
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I’m sure that isn’t so. Perhaps you could have been more specific?.
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(Which reminds me of the guy I worked with who, when asked what he wanted on his pizza, said, “Well, whatever.” The guy ordering the pizza asked, “Can you be more specific?” To which the response was, “Well, whatever, áššhølë.”)
A virus can mutate. Over time, most do. Viruses used to be mostly self contained to the area where they originated. This was because there was a smaller population. When a swine virus appeared, it seldom went beyond the farm. Only 40-50 animals would be affected. The virus usually went away before it could mutate any further.
But nowadays, pig farms have thousands of pigs confined to very limited areas, so the virus has time to mutate as it goes through the farm. Big business pig farms actually aid in the mutation of the virus.
Of course big business bad
Wouldn’t it be worse to have a small farm with many different species of animals? Lots of crowded pigs seems a good way to get lots of sick pigs but its when the virus goes from pigs to ducks to humans to chickens to pigs etc that the virus mutates, or so I’ve heard.
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Of course now I’ve heard that this may not have even been a true swine flu so who knows.
Viruses tend to mutate by either antigenic drift or antigenic shift. Drift is slow and spontateous over time, usually one nucleotide at a time. Shift is where two different viruses infect the same host and large scale transposition of nucleotides occurs, to effectively make a brand new baby virus.
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Having a larger population of one host in one area just ups the odds of getting antigenic shift into the equation, which in turn ups the odds of having a virus that jumps the species barrier.
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The other factor that’s changed over time is the distances and speeds with which viruses can spread, mainly once humans get infected, which is something the current situation is making very clear. Bluntly, time was that if you caught something really nasty you were dead or immobile before you’d walked to the next village…
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I think a keen awareness and the deployment of countermeasures is sensible at the moment, though there are dangers of spreading panic and of setting up a “cry wolf!” scenario for next time around…
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It’s worth pointing out that Y2K was a colossal non-event purely because we spent lots of money and man-hours on making dámņ sure it didn’t get to bite us in the collective corporate ášš. And that was a dámņëd site more controllable than any virus.
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Cheers.
Grandpa told me we’d have a black President when pigs flew. sure enough, 100 days into Obama’s presidency: Swine Flu.
Ouch! Also; Grooooooooooooaaaaaaaaaaannn!!!
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Cheers.