The BID Poll Revisited, part 2

Originally published December 6, 1996, in Comics Buyer’s Guide #1203

Picking up from last week, we’re following up on the But I Digress poll, conducted in these very pages four years ago. The original notion was for readers to predict the state of the comics industry a decade into the future. Since life is—to put it mildly—uncertain, I thought it might be worthwhile to take a look at how a passage of less than half a decade has affected the industry.

7. The following person will be revealed to be the Anti-Christ:

Rob Liefeld 78 (35.62%)

Todd McFarlane 20 ( 9.13%)

Tom DeFalco 14 ( 6.39%)

Peter David 12 ( 5.48%)

Jim Shooter 11 ( 5.02%)

John Byrne 10 ( 4.57%)

Bill Clinton 6 ( 2.74%)

Respondent 3 ( 1.37%)

Fabian Nicieza 2 ( 0.91%)

Gary Groth 2 ( 0.91%)

Tony Isabella 2 ( 0.91%)

Ross Perot 2 ( 0.91%)

Single votes went to, among others, Mike Carlin, Mark Gruenwald, Paul Levitz, Erik Larsen, Superman, Lobo, Damian, Rich Buckler, Dave Sim, Sam Donaldson, Pat Buchanan, Sinead O’Connor, George Bush, Macaulay Culkin and Cat Yronwode.

The results of this survey was, to me, the first major indicator that Rob Liefeld had enormous obstacles ahead of him. Keep in mind that Image had only been around a year or so, and the numbers coming in were still fairly formidable. Nevertheless, Rob clearly had a big-league public relations problem. At the time of the survey, I was astounded at the reaction. Considering all the flak Marvel was taking at the time, and considering the vituperation heaped upon the editorial line in general and the X-titles in specific, I had been certain that either Tom DeFalco or Bob Harras had had a lock on this one. For that matter, so were they.

The fact that Rob not only claimed the top spot, but did so by such a thumping wide margin, indicated a reaction that went beyond simply disliking someone’s work and tripping straight into full-fledged hostility.

And it would seem that the acrimony has only grown since then. His work for Marvel has been greeted with the sort of reaction generally reserved for known felons. Former friends are lining up either to sue him or take turns attacking him in print.

In any event, the BID poll was something of a signal flare to Rob four years ago that disaster was in the air. I don’t know if he could have done anything to avoid it. This is a cyclical industry in that people tend to get “cyc” of you, particularly if you’re hugely hyped, ship comics late, and/or have an art style that is, er, hotly debated.

On the other hand, no one’s career was deader than John Travolta’s, and he came back thanks to Pulp Fiction. And, y’know, Quentin Tarantino is a big comics fan, so who knows? Bad rap Rob Liefeld all you want, but you have to admit that he draws at least as well as Tarantino acts.

8. The following title(s) will probably be just about hitting the stands.

Youngblood #4 108 (49.32%)

An X-Men title that doesn’t yet exist 103 (47.03%)

Cerebus #300 68 (31.05%)

Ms. Mystic #8 36 (16.44%)

Tom DeFalco’s Two-Fisted Adventures #6 6 ( 2.74%)

Well, Youngblood #4 came out—eventually. I don’t think Ms. Mystic #8 ever surfaced. TDTFA doesn’t exist. And as for the X-Men title that doesn’t yet exist—well, heck, in any given week there’s a new X-Men title. So the odds seem stupendously good that there will be a new X-Men title hitting the stands—presuming, of course, that there are any X-titles. Unless we discover that, in fact, Ron Perelman is the Anti-Christ and Marvel completely evaporates into the ozone layer.

9. The standard Marvel comic book is 32 pages for $1.25. Ten years from now, should there still be Marvel comics, the standard one will be:

32 pages 99 (45.21%)

24 pages 53 (24.20%)

16 pages 38 (17.35%)

48 pages 20 ( 9.13%)

64 pages 3 ( 1.37%)

A disc 3 ( 1.37%)

(There were 17 other votes for various page lengths.) The standard Marvel comic remains at 32 pages.

And will cost:

$2.50 80 (36.53%)

$3.95 40 (18.26%)

1500 Yen 16 ( 7.31%)

$1.75 12 ( 5.48%)

$2.95 4 ( 1.83%)

$4.95 4 ( 1.83%)

$5.00 4 ( 1.83%)

$2.00 4 ( 1.83%)

$10.00 3 ( 1.37%)

$1.00 2 ( 0.91%)

$1.25 2 ( 0.91%)

$1.50 2 ( 0.91%)

$3.75 2 ( 0.91%)

Single votes were also recorded for, among others, $3.25, $5.95, and $3.50.

At the time, I wrote, “So it would seem that the future Marvel package would be 32 pages for $2.50—a 100% increase over the next ten years, and getting nothing in addition in terms of editorial matter—unless, of course, Marvel expands on the present 22 pages of story and art by cutting back on advertising revenue (yeah, right).”

Well, as of this writing, the average Marvel comic book is somewhere in the neighborhood of $1.95. I think it fairly safe to say that we’re looking at an average price of $2.50 by the time we hit the 21^st century.

10. If Warners ever unloads DC Comics, it will probably be bought by:

The Japanese 67 (30.59%)

Marvel 37 (16.89%)

Jim Shooter 24 (10.96%)

Disney 22 (10.05%)

Ross Perot 11 ( 5.02%)

Image 7 ( 3.20%)

Seduction of the Innocent            4 ( 1.83%)

Krause Publications 2 ( 0.91%)

Ted Turner 2 ( 0.91%)

Malibu 2 ( 0.91%)

Single votes were also recorded for, among others, Murphy Brown, Three X-Editors, Archie Comics, Dave Sim, Eastman and Laird, and Nabisco.

Well, this is a stark example of how much things change. As Marvel Comics teeters on the edge of bankruptcy, the prospects of Marvel’s buying DC seems right up there with the likelihood of Bob Dole calling for a recount.

In fact, if anything, we might see the opposite occurring. The notion of Marvel’s being purchased by DC doesn’t seem completely out of line. God only knows whether Time Warner would want to get sucked into the financial morass that currently constitutes Marvel Comics, but, then again, stranger things have happened. Not much stranger, I’ll grant you, but stranger.

11. The majority of comics will be produced by:

Writer/Artist teams 170 (77.63%)

Writer/Artists 42 (19.18%)

Well, I haven’t done a survey or anything, but I think most comics remain in the hands of writer/artist teams. Then again, technology has a way of leveling the playing field, and I wouldn’t be surprised if “art programs” helped writers to become artists with as great a facility as artists become writers.

12. The majority of comics produced will feature:

Characters owned by the publisher and produced as straight work-for-hire (example: Marvel) 121 (55.25%)

Characters owned by the creator and published by someone else, wherein the publisher assumes most of the risk (example: Epic) 42 (19.18%)

Characters owned by the creator and published by someone else, wherein the publisher is essentially a hired hand (example: Image) 40 (18.26%)

Characters owned by the creator, published by the creator (example: Cerebus) 13 ( 5.94%)

At this point, the majority of comics—in terms of market share, if not necessarily variety of titles—are produced by Marvel and DC. And it is, of course, an interesting development that founders of Image Comics are back doing work-for-hire for Marvel. Granted, it’s work-for-hire with unprecedented freedom, but it’s work-for-hire all the same.

13. Check off all of the following which will actively be used as marketing gimmicks:

Trading/hologram cards 135 (61.64%)

Signed, limited editions 134 (61.19%)

Pre-bagged comics 129 (58.90%)

Hologram covers 129 (58.90%)

Foil covers 121 (55.25%)

Multiple covers 114 (52.05%)

Talking covers 108 (49.32%)

Floppy discs 97 (44.29%)

Scratch & Sniff 96 (43.84%)

Pop-up Books 6 ( 2.74%)

Floppy Disks 4 ( 1.83%)

Holograms 4 ( 1.83%)

Multiple endings, same story 3 ( 1.37%)

Virtual reality 2 ( 0.91%)

#0 Origin issues 2 ( 0.91%)

Single votes were also received for, among others, Covers but no pages, lower prices (oh, dream on), recycled comics, Multiple editions of the same story, but with different artists (now there’s a thought), and—of all things—dinner with the artist.

It might be my imagination, but it seems to me that we’re seeing fancy-schmancy promotional junk with less and less frequency. It may be that such gimcracks have run their course. Variant covers still seem popular, but the buying public appears sick of foil covers, holograms, and other tricks that have questionable sales impact but jack the cover price up by a buck or more.

14. Check off all the following places that you think Seduction of the Innocent will be playing:

Street corners 92 (42.01%)

San Diego Comic-Con 76 (34.70%)

Chicago Comicon 71 (32.42%)

The Disney Channel 47 (21.46%)

Atlanta Fantasy Fair 44 (20.09%)

Great Eastern Cons 38 (17.35%)

Caesars Palace 36 (16.44%)

Dragon*Con 29 (13.24%)

Single votes were also received for WonderCon (where they’ve actually played) and the Sci-Fi Channel.

At the time that the poll was taken, “Seduction” and San Diego were on the outs. Since that time, however, the two groups kissed and made up. So the 34 % who foresaw “Seduction” playing at the SDCC—despite the then-current friction—were exactly right.

Haven’t seen “Seduction” there for a while, though. Return engagement, anybody?

15. The year 2002 will seem most like:

Space: 1999 64 (29.22%)

John Byrne’s 2112 39 (17.81%)

2000 AD 32 (14.61%)

Spider-Man 2099 24 (10.96%)

Jack Kirby’s 2001 23 (10.50%)

Single votes were also received for Blade Runner, Terminator, 1992, Max Headroom, and A Clockwork Orange.

Well, we’re going to have to wait and see on that one.

16. In the year 2002, Spider-Man 2099 will be in:

The 3/$1 box 106 (48.40%)

2099 49 (22.37%)

2109 31 (14.16%)

2100 17 ( 7.76%)

2101 14 ( 6.39%)

2105 7 ( 3.20%0

What I wrote at the time was, “Yeah, well, screw you. What do you know, anyway?”

Well, quite a lot, apparently.

Actually, before the 2099 world went bust, the intention was that we were going to jump the entire line forward a couple of years to—in fact—2101.

But then Joey Cavalieri was let go, a number of creators went with him, the 2099 line collapsed, and now shadows of the characters romp through the World of Tomorrow group title.

Spider-Man 2099, after having a personality and speech pattern carefully constructed over four dozen issues, now speaks no differently from the 1990s Spider-Man.

And the supporting cast has been killed or distorted beyond recognition. I can barely stand to look at it.

17. I think my comics will be worth more 10 years from now than they are now:

Agree 154 (70.32%)

Disagree 60 (27.40%)

18. I think the bottom is going to fall out of the collectors’ market:

Agree 126 (57.53%)

Disagree 90 (41.10%)

I would love to know—now that the bottom has indeed fallen out of the collectors’ market—how many people who felt their comics would be worth more 10 years down the road would voice the same opinion now.

19. Ten years from now, the average reader will be buying comics:

To read the stories 130 (59.36%)

To look at the artwork 62 (28.31%)

For collectible value 50 (22.83%)

Well, I have no idea where we stand on this one. Only you guys can answer it.

20. But I Digress will be:

A fond memory 92 (42.01%)

Written by me 78 (35.62%)

Written by Shana 26 (11.87%)

Drawn by Todd McFarlane 13 ( 5.94%)

An unfond memory 6 ( 2.74%)

As before, I tend to side with the folks who think it’ll be a fond memory, since I have great difficulty envisioning my doing this column 10 years hence.

I am:

20-something 99 (45.21%)

30-something 69 (31.51%)

40-something 21 ( 9.59%)

Teen something 21 ( 9.59%)

Over 40-something 3 ( 1.37%)

Kid-something 1 ( 0.46%)

Considering the way comics have been hemorrhaging readers, one wonders whether those demographics remain accurate.

I buy comics:

Combo of Story/Art 122 (55.71%)

Mostly for the story 76 (34.70%)

Investment value 44 (20.09%)

Because I’m a Marvel Zombie 11 ( 5.02%)

Mostly for the art 9 ( 4.11%)

Because they’re written by PAD 2 ( 0.91%)

How much would you like to bet that the 20% who bought for investment value have dwindled in number significantly?

I am:

A fan 163 (74.43%)

Inigo Montoya. You killed my father. Prepare to die. 40 (18.26%)

A professional in the comic industry 31 (14.16%)

The pirate king 8 ( 3.65%)

The president of Marvel 2 ( 0.91%)

The very model of a modern major general 2 ( 0.91%)

An editor at CBG 1 ( 0.46%)

Mark Gruenwald’s father 1 ( 0.46%)

The one from Grueny’s father is a little tough to take in retrospect.

(Peter David, writer of stuff, can be written to at Second Age, Inc., P.O. Box 239, Bayport, NY 11705.)